Stochastic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic Via a New Mathematical Model

This work considers a new stochastic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the coronavirusCOVID-19 by providing the healthy compartment together with the quarantine/isolation compartment. In the deterministic model, global stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium E0 and the endemic equilibrium E*are derived in terms of the threshold quantity Rd0. Based on the chaotic behavior, we develop and analyze a fourdimensional stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model. Uniqueness, boundedness, and positiveness of the proposed stochastic model are investigated in a biologically feasible region. In terms of the stochastic basic reproduction number Rs0 of the stochastic model, extinction and persistence of the COVID-19 disease are derived. Our theoretical findings are supported by some numerical simulations. The sensitivity of the model with respect to the parameters involved in the system is studied to investigate the most sensitive parameter towards the highest number of infected individuals. We confirm the stability analysis by showing the elasticity of Rs 0 with respect to the variation of each parameter. We present real data of a case study with the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom. We compare our numerical results with the real data. © 2023 L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved.

Preference Shifts During Health Shocks: Foreign Tourists' Expenditure-Price Elasticity Throughout the Pandemic

This study evaluates the changes in the expenditure-price elasticities of foreign tourists in the summer periods of 2019, 2020, and 2021. We first develop a theoretical characterization that combines microeconomic, loss aversion, price inequality and precautionary savings theories. Next, exploiting microdata for more than 34,000 foreign tourists visiting Spain, we estimate OLS and quantile regressions to empirically examine the expenditure elasticities with respect to the prices of transport services, leisure activities and bars and restaurants at the destination (17 regions). We find that (i) the expenditure-price elasticity of transportation (leisure activities) increases (decreases) during the pandemic, whereas that of bars and restaurants remains unchanged, (ii) foreign tourists are comparatively less expenditure-price elastic at high expenditure levels in transportation and bars and restaurants, and (iii) expenditure-price elasticities are highly heterogeneous depending on the origin country. Managerial and theoretical implications of the findings for firms' pricing strategies are discussed.

The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Pandemic in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: A Mathematical Modelling

The spreading of COVID-19 became a global issue that had a significant impact on health, life, and economic sectors. Efforts from all over the world are focused on discussing a variety of healthcare approaches to reduce the effect of COVID-19 among individuals. Mathematical tools with numerical simulations are important approaches that help international efforts to determine critical transmission factors as well as controlling the virus spread. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model that considers a vaccination compartment in terms of ordinary differential equations. This study focuses on the real data of confirmed cases in Kurdistan Region of Iraq from July 17th, 2021 to January 1st, 2022. Model results and real data for the total number of infected people were compared using computational tools in MATLAB. Additionally, non-normalization, half-normalization, and full-normalization methods are used to determine the local sensitivities between model variables and parameters. Interestingly, computational results show that the dynamics of model results and real confirmed cases are very close to each other. Accordingly, the elasticity coefficients provide a great understanding of the impact of vaccination on transmissions. The model results here can also help international efforts for further suggestions and improvements to control this disease more effectively. © Palestine Polytechnic University-PPU 2023.

Worse Arterial Stiffness, and Not Endothelial Dysfunction, Is Associated with Pasc

Background: COVID-19 survivors can experience lingering symptoms known as PASC that appear in different phenotypes. The etiology remains elusive and endothelial dysfunction has been postulated as a main driver of PASC. Method(s): Prospective cohort including COVID- and COVID+ with (COVID+PASC+) or without (COVID+PASC-) PASC. We measured endothelial function using Endopat, an FDA approved test, with derived reactive hyperemic index RHI (endothelial dysfunction<=1.67) and arterial elasticity (augmentation index standardized at 75 bpm or AI@75;(lower =better). PASC symptoms were categorized into three non-exclusive phenotypes: Cardiopulmonary CP (postexertional malaise, shortness of breath, cough, palpitations), Neurocognitive N (change in smell/taste, neuropathy, 'brain fog', headache), and General G (fatigue, gastrointestinal or bladder problems). Result(s): We included 491 participants with 109 of the 186 with confirmed COVID+ experiencing PASC. Median number of days between COVID diagnosis and study visit was 249 days (IQR: 144, 510). Among COVID+PASC+, the median number of symptoms was 7.0 (IQR: 3.0,13.0);97 experienced symptoms categorized as G, 90 as N, and 87 as CP. COVID+ PASC+ had the lowest RHI (1.77+/-0.47) and the largest proportion [46.79% (n=51)] with RHI<=1.67 (Figure). AI@75 was the lowest in COVID- (3.11+/-15.97) followed by COVID+PASC- (3.57 +/- 16.34). Within COVID+PASC+, the mean AI@75 among G was 10.11+/-14.85, 11.36+/-14.67 with N, and highest (12.01 +/- 14.48) with CP. Symptoms' number was positively associated with AI@75 (p=0.01). The estimated mean difference in AI@75 between COVID+ PASC+ with CP and COVID+ PASC- was 8.44+/-2.46 (p=0.001), between COVID+ PASC+ with CP phenotype and COVID- was 8.9+/-1.91 (p< .0001), and between COVID+ PASC+ with CP phenotype and COVID+ PASC without CP phenotype was 7.51+/-3.75 (p=0.04) Conclusion(s): PASC was associated with worse arterial elasticity and within PASC, the cardiopulmonary phenotype had the highest arterial stiffness. (Figure Presented).

Economics in game theory for hotel unemployment

This study uses the game theory to find a Nash equilibrium of price elasticities of hotel demand in the United States before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to interpret the decrease in hotel unemployment rate. The sample selected is the Oahu, Hawaii market due to its higher room rate and higher unemployment rate compared to those in the mainland US. Findings indicate that to increase hotel revenue and decrease unemployment rate, the price elasticity of hotel demand in the mainland US would be higher than the one in Oahu, Hawaii. While the government has built more value into hotels by financially supporting unemployed hotel employees, established hotel brands have maintained their excellent service for their guests during the pandemic. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourism & Hospitality Research is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Sex Modifies the Effect of Covid-19 and Pasc Status on Arterial Stiffness

Background: Sex differences in immunological responses to COVID-19 infection and mechanisms that may contribute towards post-acute sequelae of SARS-Co-V2 (PASC) have been reported. However, evidence on the effects of COVID infection on vascular dysfunction and PASC are limited. Method(s): FDA approved EndoPAT device was used to measure endothelial function [Reactive Hyperemia Index (RHI)] and arterial stiffness [Augmentation Index standardized at 75 beats/min (AI@75;higher AI = worse arterial elasticity)] in an adult cohort (age >=18 years) with a history of COVID-19 infection (COVID+) or confirmed SARS-CoV2 antibody negative (COVID-). Generalized linear regression was used to compute estimates of RHI and AI@75. Adjusted models included age, sex, race, blood pressure, lipids, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and pre-existing comorbidities. Two-way interactions were used to determine if the effects of COVID or PASC status on endothelial function depends on age, sex, race, smoking status, or prevalent comorbidities. Result(s): 61.99% (n=305) of study participants were COVID- and 187 (38.01%) were COVID+. Among COVID+, 57.22% (n=107) were female, 31.72% (n=59) were non-white race, and the average age was 46.64+/-13.79 years. COVIDparticipants had a smaller proportion (38.03%) of female sex (p< .0001), lower BMI [COVID+ (30.79+/-8.95 kg/m2) vs. COVID- (27.76+/-5.89 kg/m2);p< .0001], and higher proportion of smokers [COVID+ (17.78%) vs. COVID- (58.22%);p< .0001]. The average follow-up was 349.68+/-276.76 days and 109 (22.15%) COVID+ experienced PASC. 42.48% (n=80) of COVID+ and 41.64% (n=127) of COVID- had RHI<= 1.67 (p=0.8). The average AI@75 among COVID+ without PASC was 3.63+/-16.24, with PASC was 10.5+/-14.72, and 3.11+/-15.97 among COVID- (p=0.0001). Male sex had the lowest AI@75 (-0.08+/-14.9) compared to female sex (10.75+/-15.3;< .0001). In adjusted models, PASC, female sex had 8.14+/-2.95 higher AI@75 compared to PASC, male sex (p=0.006), 18.58+/-2.99 higher AI@75 compared to COVID+ without PASC, male sex (p< .0001), 13.81+/-2.11 higher AI@75 compared to COVID-, male sex (p< .0001), and 4.97+/-2.28 higher AI@75 compared to COVID-, female sex (p=0.03). Sex was not associated with RHI or modified the effect of COVID or PASC status on endothelial function Conclusion(s): The effect of COVID and PASC status on arterial stiffness depends on sex. Female sex is associated with increased arterial stiffness (worse arterial elasticity) in the post-acute phase of COVID-19. (Figure Presented).

Analysis of Road Transport Response to COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria and its Policy Implications.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a serious global health challenge to humanity in recent times. It has caused fundamental disruptions to the global transportation system, supply chains, and trade. The impact on the transport sector resulting from lockdowns has led to huge losses in revenue. At the moment there are limited studies of the road transport sector response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper fills this gap using Nigeria as a case study area. A mixed method involving both qualitative and quantitative research was employed. Principal Component Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis were used to analyze the data. The results suggest that road transport operators strongly (90.7%) believe that 51 adopted new technologies/innovations, processes, and procedures will keep them and passengers safe from the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. A breakdown shows that observing the lockdown directive is perceived by road transport operators as the most effective response to the pandemic. The breakdown continues in descending order thus: COVID-19 safety protocols, environmental sanitation, and promotion of hygiene, information technology, facemask, and social distancing. Others are public enlightenment, palliative, inclusion, and mass media. This indicates that non-pharmaceutical measures are very effective in the fight against the pandemic. This finding leverages support for the application of non-pharmaceutical guidelines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

Factors affecting household carbohydrate food consumption in Central Java: Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a change in food demand. In Central Java, during the pandemic (2021), the proportion of expenditure on the grain food group was higher than in 2020;meanwhile, the proportion of the ready-to-eat food group decreased. This study aims to analyze the pattern of food consumption of carbohydrate sources, the influencing factors, and the elasticity of consumption in households in Central Java before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses data from the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) for 12 districts/cities in Central Java consisting of 9,812 in 2019 and 10,636 households samples in 2021. Data analysis used the Linear Approximation Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) method. Results of the study show that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in the household consumption pattern of carbohydrate-source food in Central Java. The proportion of expenditure on rice, wheat flour, shelled corn, cassava, and potatoes has increased. On the other hand, wet corn, instant noodles, and white rice decreased. The price of food sources of carbohydrates and the number of household members positively affect the consumption of food sources of carbohydrates. At the same time, income has a negative effect. There are differences in the effect of the location of the residence on the consumption of food sources of carbohydrates before and during the pandemic. The value of own-price elasticity and income elasticity shows that before the pandemic, rice was a staple good whose consumption was inelastic. Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, wheat flour, wet-skinned corn, shelled corn, potatoes, white rice, and cassava in the pre-pandemic period was Giffen because the price elasticity was positive, and the income elasticity was negative. Meanwhile, rice during the pandemic, instant noodles before and during the pandemic, and cassava were Veblen goods because their price and income elasticity were positive. Cross elasticity shows that before the pandemic, most of the relationships between food sources of carbohydrates were substitutes, while during the pandemic, most of the relationships between food sources of carbohydrates were complementary. © 2023 the author(s), published by De Gruyter.

The effect of COVID-19 on vascular elasticity and liver function in overweight patients.

Objective. To study the changes in the vascular wall, vascular age and metabolic parameters in polymorbid COVID-19 conva-lescents. Material and methods. The study included 62 patients with hypertension who reached the target blood pressure (BP) with dual an-tihypertensive therapy after severe and extremely severe COVID-19. The following examinations were performed: laboratory tests of metabolic parameters, assessment of changes in the vessel elasticity indices (pulse-wave velocity (PWV), augmentation index (AI), central systolic BP (cSBP), 24-hour BP monitoring, and non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis. Results. According to office BP measurements, after the coronavirus infection, an increase in systolic BP (SBP) by 29.6% and di-astolic BP (DBP) by 23.6%, as well as heart rate (HR) by 11.8% (p<0.05) was reported during regular antihypertensive therapy. In addition, 24-hour BP monitoring data indicated an increase in the average daily SBP, DBP, and heart rate. After the coronavirus infection, an increase in PWV by 35.4% (p<0.05), AI by 24.4% (p<0.05), cSBP by 22.1% were reported. Carbohydrate and lipid metabolism parameters deteriorated. A pronounced adverse effect of coronavirus infection on liver function was observed. The vascular age (according to the modified SCORE scale) increased by 6 years (p<0.05). Conclusion. Our study showed that patients after severe and extremely severe COVID-19 have a high risk of liver fibrosis, hypertension and lipid metabolism control worsening and accelerating vascular aging.Copyright © 2023, Media Sphera Publishing Group. All rights reserved.

The welfare impacts of Covid-19 on the U.S. salmon sector

This research estimates the effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. supply and demand for salmon over two distinct periods. The first period reflects the first year (2020) since the COVID-19 outbreak, and the second period covers the outbreak's second year (2021). The effects of COVID-19 on salmon prices, domestic production, and imports are analysed through graphics, elasticities, and spatial welfare economics derived from the equilibrium displacement model of the U.S. salmon market. In the first year, COVID-19 caused a reduction in domestic demand. As a result, U.S. salmon producers and consumers lost $302 million. Consumer loss accounts for 87% of this value. In 2021, however, domestic consumption recovered, with a positive effect of $447 million on consumers, outweighing the negative impact from 2020. Together, the domestic producers and consumers gained approximately $512 million. The net market gain (a combination of the first- and second-year effects) was $210 million. These results are subject to the magnitudes of change in demand and supply due to COVID-19 and transportation costs.

The effect of COVID-19 on vascular elasticity and liver function in overweight patients.

Objective. To study the changes in the vascular wall, vascular age and metabolic parameters in polymorbid COVID-19 conva-lescents. Material and methods. The study included 62 patients with hypertension who reached the target blood pressure (BP) with dual an-tihypertensive therapy after severe and extremely severe COVID-19. The following examinations were performed: laboratory tests of metabolic parameters, assessment of changes in the vessel elasticity indices (pulse-wave velocity (PWV), augmentation index (AI), central systolic BP (cSBP), 24-hour BP monitoring, and non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis. Results. According to office BP measurements, after the coronavirus infection, an increase in systolic BP (SBP) by 29.6% and di-astolic BP (DBP) by 23.6%, as well as heart rate (HR) by 11.8% (p<0.05) was reported during regular antihypertensive therapy. In addition, 24-hour BP monitoring data indicated an increase in the average daily SBP, DBP, and heart rate. After the coronavirus infection, an increase in PWV by 35.4% (p<0.05), AI by 24.4% (p<0.05), cSBP by 22.1% were reported. Carbohydrate and lipid metabolism parameters deteriorated. A pronounced adverse effect of coronavirus infection on liver function was observed. The vascular age (according to the modified SCORE scale) increased by 6 years (p<0.05). Conclusion. Our study showed that patients after severe and extremely severe COVID-19 have a high risk of liver fibrosis, hypertension and lipid metabolism control worsening and accelerating vascular aging.Copyright © 2023, Media Sphera Publishing Group. All rights reserved.

The effect of COVID-19 on vascular elasticity and liver function in overweight patients.

Objective. To study the changes in the vascular wall, vascular age and metabolic parameters in polymorbid COVID-19 conva-lescents. Material and methods. The study included 62 patients with hypertension who reached the target blood pressure (BP) with dual an-tihypertensive therapy after severe and extremely severe COVID-19. The following examinations were performed: laboratory tests of metabolic parameters, assessment of changes in the vessel elasticity indices (pulse-wave velocity (PWV), augmentation index (AI), central systolic BP (cSBP), 24-hour BP monitoring, and non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis. Results. According to office BP measurements, after the coronavirus infection, an increase in systolic BP (SBP) by 29.6% and di-astolic BP (DBP) by 23.6%, as well as heart rate (HR) by 11.8% (p<0.05) was reported during regular antihypertensive therapy. In addition, 24-hour BP monitoring data indicated an increase in the average daily SBP, DBP, and heart rate. After the coronavirus infection, an increase in PWV by 35.4% (p<0.05), AI by 24.4% (p<0.05), cSBP by 22.1% were reported. Carbohydrate and lipid metabolism parameters deteriorated. A pronounced adverse effect of coronavirus infection on liver function was observed. The vascular age (according to the modified SCORE scale) increased by 6 years (p<0.05). Conclusion. Our study showed that patients after severe and extremely severe COVID-19 have a high risk of liver fibrosis, hypertension and lipid metabolism control worsening and accelerating vascular aging.Copyright © 2023, Media Sphera Publishing Group. All rights reserved.

The Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Public Attention to 5G: Empirical Analysis Based on Baidu Index from 2011 to 2021

The development of 5G (fifth-generation wireless systems) determines the future direction of technology and economy and has received extensive public attention. Studying the changing rules of public attention to 5G can provide an important guiding significance for the sustainable development of 5G. This paper takes Baidu Index as the measurement index of 5G public attention and analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of public attention to 5G from 2011 to 2021 by using the elasticity coefficient, Gini coefficient, geographical concentration index, and panel data model. The results of the study show the following. (1) The public concern to 5G is generally on the rise, but the heat has declined in the past two years. (2) The public's 5G attention shows a seasonal effect, with the highest attention in March and June. (3) The spatial difference of 5G public attention is obvious. The eastern region has a high degree of attention, the internal differences between the eastern and western regions are obvious, and the central region is relatively balanced. (4) The factors such as local economic level, education level, Internet development, and media attention have significantly affected the public focus on 5G. Also, some suggestions are made for the sustainable development of 5G and the planning of 6G (sixth-generation wireless systems).

Measuring Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Using Trade Network Analysis Method

With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020, this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China S global supply chains. Our research finds that first, most global supply-chain-vulnerable products are from technology-intensive sectors. For advanced economies, their supply chain vulnerabilities are primarily exposed to political and economic alliances. In comparison, developing economies are more dependent on regional communities. Second, China has a significant export advantage with over 80% of highly vulnerable intermediate inputs relying on imports of high-end electrical, mechanical and chemical products from advanced economies or their multinational companies. China also relies on developing economies for the import of some resource products. Third, during the trade frictions from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in the supply chain vulnerabilities of China and the US for critical products compared with other products, which reflects a shift in the layout of critical product supply chains to ensure not just efficiency but security. China should address supply chain vulnerabilities by bolstering supply-side weaknesses, diversifying import sources, and promoting international coordination and cooperation.

Metro travel and perceived COVID-19 infection risks: A case study of Hong Kong.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted unprecedented impacts on travel behaviors because of people's increased health precautions and the presence of various COVID-19 containment measures. However, little research has explored whether and how people changed their travel with respect to their perceived local infection risks across space and time. In this article, we relate elasticity and resilience thinking to the changes in metro travel and perceived infection risks at the station or community level over time. Using empirical data from Hong Kong, we measure a metro station's elasticity as the ratio of changes in its average trip length to the COVID-19 cases' footprints around that station. We regard those footprints as a proxy for people's perceived infection risks when making trips to that station. To explore influencing factors on travel in the ups and downs of perceived infection risks, we classify stations based on their elasticity values and examine the association between stations' elasticities and characteristics of stations and their served communities. The findings show that stations varied in elasticity values across space and different surges of the local pandemic. The elasticity of stations can be predicted by socio-demographics and physical attributes of station areas. Stations serving a larger percentage of population with higher education degrees and certain occupations observed more pronounced trip length decrease for the same level of perceived infection risks. The number of parking spaces and retail facilities significantly explained variations in stations' elasticity. The results provide references on crisis management and resilience improvement amid and post COVID-19.

Meet the Meatless: Demand for New Generation Plant-Based Meat Alternatives.

With the unique mimicry of the sensory experiences of meats, the plant-based meat alternatives (PBMA) appeal to consumers outside the traditional vegetarian demographics. This study analyzes market expenditure data from 2017 to 2020 to evaluate the demand for PBMA in relation to meats. Results show that PBMA is a complement for beef and pork while a substitute for chicken, turkey, and fish. Although the current market demand for PBMA is still incomparable with meats, the growth of PBMA sales is significant. This study sheds light on marketing strategies and policies towards the future of PBMA and the fresh meat sector.

CFD analysis of the hyper-viscous effects on blood flow across abdominal aortic aneurysm in COVID patients: multiphysics approach.

Recent research has shown that individuals suffering from COVID-19 are accommodating an elevated level of blood viscosity due to the morphological changes in blood cells. As viscosity is a major flow parameter influencing the flow across a stenosis or an aneurysm, the examination of the significance of hyperviscosity in COVID patients is imperative in arterial pathologies. In this research, we have considered a patient-specific case in which the aneurysm is located along the abdominal aortal walls. Recent research on the side effects of COVID-19 voiced out the various effects on the circulatory system of humans. Also, as abdominal aneurysms exist very often among individuals, causing the death of 150-200 million every year, the hyper-viscous effects of blood on the flow across the diseased aorta are explored by considering the elevated viscosity levels. In vitro explorations contribute considerably to the clinical methods and treatments to be regarded. The objective of the present inquest is to research the flow field in aneurysmatic-COVID-affected patients considering the elastic nature of vessel walls, using the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach. The study supports the various clinical findings that voiced the detrimental effects associated with blood hyperviscosity. The simulation results obtained, by solving the fluid mechanics' equations coupled with the solid mechanics' equations, employing a FEM solver suggest that the elevated stress imparted by the hyper-viscous flows on the walls of the aneurysmal aorta can trigger the fastening of the aneurysmal sac enlargement or rupture.

Resiliency of healthcare expenditure to income shock: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panels.

Using the World Bank data over the period of 1960-2019, this study aims at estimating the resiliency of health expenditures against gross domestic product (GDP). Long-run and short-run elasticities are calculated using the type of panel time series methods that are exclusively designed for dynamic heterogeneous panels: Mean Group, Pooled Mean Group, and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators. These methods permit better estimations of elasticity with considerable heterogeneity across the 177 countries included in this study. Along with a standard elasticity estimation, this study estimates country-specific long-run and short-run elasticities along with error correction components. The study finds that the long-run elasticity of income is very close to unity, but short-run coefficients are insignificant for most nations. In addition, most countries revert to long-run equilibrium reasonably quickly if there is shock as the error correction coefficients are negative and, in many cases, very close to one. While for most developed countries, the short-run elasticities are lower in comparison with the short-run elasticities of developing countries indicating that many developing countries may face a larger decrease in health expenditure with the forecasted decline in income due to impending economic recession. Therefore, although this study is not directly intended to capture the post-COVID-19 effects, the study estimates may project the potential responses in health expenditure across countries due to potential income shocks.

Does Automatic Wage Indexation Destroy Jobs? A Machine Learning Approach.

This paper analyzes the impact of automatic wage indexation on employment. To boost competitiveness and increase employment, Belgium suspended its automatic wage indexation system in 2015. This resulted in a 2% fall in real wages for all workers. In the absence of a suitable control group, we use machine learning for the counterfactual analysis. We artificially construct the control group for a difference-in-difference analysis based on the pre-treatment evolution of treated firms. We find a positive impact on employment of 1.2%, which corresponds to a labor demand elasticity of - 0.6. This effect is more pronounced for manufacturing firms, where the elasticity reaches - 1. These results show that a suspension of the automatic wage indexation mechanism can be effective in preserving employment.

Colonial legacies on employment: comparisons between some former Anglophone and French colonies

Purpose: In this paper, the author assesses if the effect of structural policies, macroeconomic indicators and demographic factors on employment elasticities over the period 2000–2017 can distinguish the former French colonies from the Anglophone ones. Design/methodology/approach: Using a panel of 44 countries taken from Africa and Middle East Area, elasticities are estimated in the first stage by rolling regression. Then, both static and dynamic panel models are investigated. Findings: Results suggest big difference between the former French colonies and Anglophone ones. For the French colonies, product and labor market flexibility are found to have significant and positive impact on elasticities, while for Anglophone ones, only foreign direct investment and government size are found to have significant and positive impact. Besides, all reforms and/or economic measures need to be complemented by macroeconomic policies aimed to increase economic stability. Originality/value: The results presented in this study highlight some of the factors that appear to drive the relationship between employment and some structural policies, macroeconomic indicators and demographic factors for two groups of former colonies. The paper provides policy conclusions based on these results for the two groups. This analysis may indeed help to inform future policy discussions, yet much additional work is needed to identify macroeconomic "best practices” for encouraging employment in the post-2019 covid crisis period. © 2022, Malika Neifar.